Who is Most Likely to Win Best Actress in a Musical at the Tonys?

Every actress hopes to win a Tony from the very start of their career. The Tony Awards, set up in 1947, take place in Manhattan to recognize Broadway actors and productions that have excelled in the previous year. Many actresses are vying for the golden statue, from stalwarts like Idina Menzel and Sutton Foster to relative newcomers to the New York stages, such as Jinkx Monsoon.

Categories at the awards include Best Musical, Best Play, Best Actor in a Musical, Best Actress in a Musical, Best Musical Revival, and Best Choreography.

Read on to find out more about who is in with a chance of winning the Best Actress in a Musical category and to find out more about the Tony Awards themselves.

Gold Derby predicts a 33.9% chance that Audra Macdonald will win the Tony for Best Actress in a Musical:: Discover the current Odds now HERE.

When Are the Tonys?

This year, the Tonys will take place on June 8 and will give awards to those who have given outstanding performances in the previous year. The ceremony will take place at Radio City Music Hall, Manhattan, New York, USA, and will be aired on CBS at 8:00 pm ET, meaning you can watch all the action live.

When Will the Nominations Be Announced?

You might currently feel as if you are in the dark when it comes to who to place a bet on. The announcement of Tony-nominated actresses is on May 1, 2025. However, this does not mean that predictions cannot be made, and odds are already available for potential winning actresses who have performed in the 2024/25 season.

Who are the Favorites for Best Actress?

Best Actress in a Musical is one of the night’s most coveted awards, and speculation is rife as to who will be nominated for the gong. Early predictions include:

• Audra McDonald, Gypsy
• Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Boulevard
• Sutton Foster, Once Upon a Mattress
• Idina Menzel, Redwood

Audra McDonald is currently the favorite for the title of Best Actress in a Musical, not least because she is currently the owner of the most number of Tony awards, with six to her name. Not only this, but she is the only person to have won Tonys for four different categories, unlike her counterparts. This includes wins for performances in musicals such as Ragtime and Porgy and Bess.

However, tight competition will come from the corner of celebrity Nicole Scherzinger, whose previous performances on-screen and on-stage could help her nudge into the lead. After appearing in the West End and winning an Olivier for her performance in the same production in the 2023/4 season, this is Scherzinger’s Broadway debut in Sunset Boulevard, a show that is also predicted to win big at the Tony Awards after its leap across the pond.

Could the title go to the underdog, though? The odds for Idina Menzel might be lower than others, but her Broadway prowess is well-known, and she is no stranger to originating roles, including Elizabeth in If/Then and Elphaba in Wicked. In fact, this is the first time she has performed in the same theater since her Broadway debut in RENT after having a successful career that includes musical Disney films such as Frozen.

It’s important not to forget about Sutton Foster. She might be at the lower end of the odds, but her career spans decades, including performing as Jo in the musical version of Little Women and reprising Reno Sweeney in Anything Goes in the West End and Broadway.

You could win $410 by betting $100 on Nicole Scherzinger at Gold Derby if she wins the Tony.