Best Picture 2025: Will Anora Be Crowned the Winner?

The 2025 Oscars race has been a bit of a whirlwind to say the least. Just when the dust seemed to settle, a new frontrunner has emerged: Sean Baker’s Anora. From its Palme d’Or win at Cannes to a recent sweep of major guild awards, Anora is now firmly positioned as the film to beat. But with Oscar voting just underway, the question remains: will Anora maintain its momentum and claim the coveted Best Picture award?

A Rollercoaster Ride to Oscar Frontrunner

Anora‘s journey to frontrunner status has been anything but predictable. Early buzz generated by its Cannes victory and rave reviews positioned it as an early favorite. However, a shutout at the Golden Globes, coupled with the rise of contenders like The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez, cast doubt on Anora‘s chances. The film seemed to have peaked too soon, fading into the background as other narratives took hold.

The tide began to turn with Anora‘s strong showing in Oscar nominations, securing six nods in key categories. This kept hope alive, suggesting that with the right breaks, a Best Picture win was still within reach. Those breaks arrived in the form of two crucial wins: the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture and the Critics Choice Award for Best Picture.

The PGA Award, in particular, is a significant predictor of Oscar success. With a voting body of over 8,000 producers, many of whom are also Academy members, the PGA Award has correctly predicted the Best Picture winner 24 out of 35 times, and even more impressively, 12 out of the last 15 years. This win, especially against key competitors The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez, solidified Anora‘s resurgence.

Is a win for Best Picture likely for Anora? Betting site 22bet21.com has considerably high odds of 1.444/1 or 69.30%.

The Director’s Touch

Adding to Anora‘s momentum is Sean Baker’s Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award win. Historically, the DGA Award is a strong indicator of the Best Director Oscar, with only eight instances of divergence between the two. This win not only positions Baker as the frontrunner for Best Director but also significantly boosts Anora‘s Best Picture prospects. The correlation between Best Director and Best Picture is undeniable, with the awards aligning 69 times in 94 years and 15 times in the last 24 years.

Timing is Everything

The timing of Anora‘s recent victories couldn’t be more crucial. With Oscar voting commencing on February 11th and concluding on February 18th, these wins place Anora firmly in voters’ minds. Baker’s acceptance speeches at both the PGA and DGA ceremonies provided valuable opportunities to re-emphasize the film’s merits and generate renewed interest.

Further bolstering Anora‘s chances are its upcoming nominations at the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA). A win at the WGA for Best Original Screenplay would further solidify Anora‘s strength in a key category, while BAFTA recognition could add international acclaim.

Challenges and Competitors

Despite its frontrunner status, Anora‘s path to victory is not without obstacles. While The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez may be facing controversy, their earlier momentum cannot be entirely discounted. Genre films like Dune: Part Two and The Substance face genre bias, while smaller films like I’m Still Here and Nickel Boys lack widespread support. Conclave, despite its critical acclaim, missed key nominations, hindering its chances.

This leaves Wicked and A Complete Unknown as the most significant threats to Anora. Both films are expected to perform well with the preferential ballot and have strong contenders in acting categories. However, unseating Anora would require a significant shift in momentum or an unforeseen development.

Anora, the story of a sex worker and a Russian oligarch’s son, has captivated audiences and critics alike. Its unique blend of comedy and drama, coupled with strong performances and Baker’s distinct directorial style, has resonated with voters. With key wins at the PGA and DGA, Anora has emerged as the clear frontrunner for Best Picture. While the race is far from over, Anora is currently in the best position to claim the top prize.