Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars – Will Anora Take the Prize?
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Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars – Will Anora Take the Prize?
The 2025 Oscars race has been a whirlwind of unexpected twists and turns, and as we approach the final stretch, one film has emerged from the chaos as a surprising frontrunner: Sean Baker’s Anora. This quirky comedy, centered around a Brighton Beach sex worker, has recently experienced a surge in momentum, leaving many to wonder if its unique charm will extend to a win for Best Original Screenplay.
A Surprise Turn of Events
Just weeks ago, Anora‘s Oscar prospects seemed uncertain. While critically acclaimed, the film had been largely shut out at the Critics Choice Awards, losing in key categories like Best Director and Best Actress. Even the Best Original Screenplay award, where Anora held a perceived advantage, went to Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. The film’s surprise win for Best Picture at the CCAs, however, signaled a shift in the tide. This unexpected victory was quickly followed by wins at the Directors Guild of America (DGA) and Producers Guild of America (PGA) awards, solidifying Anora‘s status as a serious contender.
The PGA Effect
The PGA Awards, in particular, are considered a strong predictor of Oscar success. Historically, the winner of the PGA’s top prize often goes on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. This correlation, combined with Anora‘s DGA win, suggests a growing consensus within the industry, especially considering the significant overlap between guild and Academy membership. This groundswell of support for Anora is particularly noteworthy given the film’s earlier snub at the Golden Globes and the intervening controversies surrounding other frontrunners.
Can it win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? The odds over at 22bet21.com are 1.21/1 or 82.60%, suggesting it’s highly likely.
Navigating Controversy
Anora‘s rise coincides with controversies surrounding two other prominent contenders: The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez. The Brutalist faced criticism for its use of AI to enhance accents, while Emilia Pérez was embroiled in scandal due to past social media posts by its star. While these controversies may have indirectly benefited Anora, it’s important to note that the Critics Choice Association voting, which preceded these events, already indicated a fondness for Baker’s film.
The Case for Anora
Beyond the recent awards buzz, Anora possesses several qualities that make it a compelling candidate for Best Original Screenplay. The film’s witty and layered script offers a nuanced exploration of class and gender dynamics, wrapped in a vibrant and engaging comedic package. Its Palme d’Or win at Cannes further underscores its international appeal, a factor that could resonate with the Academy’s increasingly diverse membership. Furthermore, Anora‘s potential strength with the preferential ballot system, used for both the CCAs and Oscars’ Best Picture, could propel it to victory. This system allows voters to rank their choices, potentially favoring films that appeal to a broad range of tastes, even if they aren’t everyone’s top pick.
The Competition
While Anora‘s momentum is undeniable, the Best Original Screenplay category remains competitive. The Substance, with its earlier Critics Choice win, demonstrates a strong appeal. Other nominees, including The Brutalist, A Real Pain, and September 5, also boast unique narratives and creative storytelling. The final decision rests with the Academy, and the outcome remains uncertain.
The Final Verdict?
Anora‘s journey to Oscar contention has been an unexpected one. From early setbacks to a surge of critical recognition, the film has defied expectations. While the Best Original Screenplay award is not guaranteed, Anora‘s unique blend of humor, social commentary, and international acclaim makes it a strong contender. Whether it ultimately takes home the prize remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Anora has firmly established itself as a force to be reckoned with in the 2025 Oscar race. The Screen Actors Guild Awards on February 23rd may offer further clues, but the final verdict will come on Oscar night, March 2nd.