Academy Awards 2025: Could Conclave Win Best Adapted Screenplay?

The 97th Academy Awards are just around the corner, and while Emilia Pérez leads the nominations, the Best Adapted Screenplay category is anyone’s game. Peter Straughan’s adaptation of Robert Harris’s Conclave has garnered significant buzz, but does it have what it takes to win? The film faces tough competition, but its critical success and unexpected social media popularity might just give it the edge. Let’s take a closer look.

A Crowded Field of Contenders

Conclave faces stiff competition from four other compelling adaptations: James Mangold and Jay Cocks’s screenplay for A Complete Unknown, based on the biography of Bob Dylan; the Emilia Pérez screenplay, a collaborative effort adapting an opera libretto and novel; Nickel Boys, adapted by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes from Colson Whitehead’s novel; and Sing Sing, adapted from a book and play by a team of writers. Each of these films boasts its own strengths, making the Best Adapted Screenplay category one of the most unpredictable of the night.

Conclave‘s Strengths

Conclave centers on the secretive world of the papal conclave, following Cardinal Thomas Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes) as he navigates the complex web of Vatican politics and uncovers shocking secrets during the election of a new pope. The film’s intricate plot, adapted from Harris’s meticulously researched novel, has been praised for its suspenseful pacing and intelligent exploration of themes of faith, power, and morality.

Critical reception has been overwhelmingly positive, with Rotten Tomatoes boasting a 93% approval rating and Metacritic awarding the film a score of 79. Critics have lauded the film’s strong performances, particularly Fiennes’s nuanced portrayal of Cardinal Lawrence, and Edward Berger’s masterful direction. The screenplay itself has been singled out for its sharp dialogue, intricate plotting, and ability to translate the complexities of the novel to the screen. The film’s success extends beyond critical acclaim, earning eight Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture, and garnering significant awards attention elsewhere.

So, can Conclave win the award for Best Adapted Screenplay? The odds at 22bet21.com are quite high, at 1.15/1 or 87%, meaning it stands a good chance.

The Challenges

Despite its strengths, Conclave faces certain challenges. Political thrillers, while often critically acclaimed, don’t always resonate with Academy voters as strongly as more emotionally driven narratives. Furthermore, the competition is fierce. A Complete Unknown benefits from the cultural weight of Bob Dylan’s legacy, while Emilia Pérez, with its thirteen nominations, enjoys significant momentum.

The Social Media Factor

Interestingly, Conclave has found an unexpected ally in social media. The film has become a surprising meme sensation, with online comparisons to everything from RuPaul’s Drag Race to Mean Girls. This unexpected viral popularity has introduced the film to a wider audience and generated a level of engagement that could influence Academy voters.

Conclave‘s path to Best Adapted Screenplay is not without obstacles. However, the film’s strong critical reception, compelling narrative, and unexpected social media boost position it as a serious contender. While predicting the Oscars is always a risky endeavor, Peter Straughan’s adaptation of Conclave undoubtedly deserves recognition for its intelligent and engaging portrayal of a world rarely seen on screen. Whether this translates into Oscar gold remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Conclave has made its mark on the cinematic landscape of 2024.