Will Moana 2 Top $150.5 Million in Its US Opening Weekend Box Office?

Disney is poised to have another major box office hit on their hands with the upcoming release of Moana 2. Early tracking suggests the film could earn over $150 million domestically in its opening weekend, putting it among Disney’s biggest animated openings of all time. But how realistic are these lofty predictions? Let’s take a closer look at the tracking and how Moana 2 stacks up against other recent Disney animated sequels and originals.

Moana 2 Tracking Points to Massive Opening Weekend

According to initial tracking from analytics companies like The Quarum, Moana 2 is projected to earn around $75 million from Friday to Sunday box office sales. Expand that to include Wednesday and Thursday previews, and the four-day opening weekend gross grows to an estimated $100 million.

This would easily be the biggest Thanksgiving opening weekend ever in terms of raw dollar amounts. The previous record holder is 2013’s Catching Fire, which grossed $100 million over the five-day frame. 2019’s Frozen II comes in second with $125 million in its first five days.

Hitting these projections would also mark a major rebound for Disney after underwhelming recent animated releases like Encanto ($41 million opening), Strange World ($19 million) and Wish ($32 million). It seems pent up demand for a major Disney animated film could fuel a Moana 2 breakout.

If you think Moana 2 can top $150.5 million it its opening weekend, place your bets at 1xbet.com, where there are odds of 1.833 and a predicted 54.60% of the movie achieving this goal.

How Moana 2 Tracking Compares to Recent Disney Animated Films

While a $100+ million start would be impressive, it’s not wildly above what many recent Disney animated films have earned, when adjusting for inflation. Frozen II’s $125 million Thanksgiving opening adjusts to about $147 million today. And Moana’s $82 million three-day start in 2016 equates to roughly $101 million with inflation.

Other Disney animated movies that opened in the same ballpark when adjusting for inflation include Tangled ($94 million adjusted), Frozen ($123 million), Coco ($88 million) and Ralph Breaks the Internet ($100 million).

So, while Moana 2 is poised for a big debut, it’s not tracking significantly higher than various Disney animated originals and sequels over the past decade or so. The expectations seem reasonable and not overly inflated.

Disney Animation vs. Pixar: Managing Expectations

Interestingly, tracking for Pixar’s upcoming original feature Elemental is much softer, pegged for a $40-50 million domestic opening next summer. This speaks to how brands develop certain expectations over time.

In the 2000s and early 2010s, Pixar films consistently topped $500 million worldwide, with many nearing $700 million globally. But after a run of billion-dollar sequels, expectations shifted. Now a movie like Elemental grossing $495 million would be viewed as underwhelming by some, despite being on par with classics like Monsters Inc. and The Incredibles.

Meanwhile, Walt Disney Animation has seen inflated expectations after megahits like Frozen and Zootopia. In reality, most of their originals historically gross closer to $600 million than $900 million worldwide. But coming off Encanto and Strange World, a sequel like Moana 2 is now seen as the “sure thing.”

Essentially, a handful of overperformers have skewed perceptions for both studios. Perhaps the benchmark shouldn’t be unrealistic high, but rather a solid baseline reflecting each brand’s strengths. For Pixar, that may be $500 million global. For Disney Animation, maybe $600-700 million is a reasonable goal.

The Verdict on Moana 2 Opening Weekend

Given the healthy tracking and pent up demand, Moana 2 crossing $150 million domestically in its first weekend seems achievable. A 4-day opening over $100 million would be right in line with inflation-adjusted results for several recent Disney animated films. While some may expect more, meeting these projections would be an impressive comeback and a reminder of Disney Animation’s strengths.

Rather than unfairly judging every release against unprecedented megahits like Frozen, it’s important to consider nuanced context and manage expectations. By historical standards, Moana 2 is poised for an excellent opening. Now it’s up to eager audiences to decide if it lives up to the hype when it sails into theaters this Thanksgiving.