Can Wicked: Part One Break $100.5 Million in Its US Opening Weekend Box Office?

The highly anticipated film adaptation of the Broadway musical Wicked is poised to be one of the biggest box office hits of 2024. On October 10, the Wizard of Oz prequel shattered records when tickets went on sale, booking the third-highest first-day pre-sales ever for a PG-rated movie.

Wicked outpaced Pixar’s Inside Out 2, the current highest grossing movie of 2024 worldwide, to earn the best first-day presales this year so far for a PG film. It trails only the R-rated Marvel movie Deadpool & Wolverine in overall first-day sales for any 2024 movie.

Massive Opening Weekend on the Horizon

Given the runaway success of those prior blockbusters, Wicked appears primed for one of the biggest domestic opening weekends of 2024. Inside Out 2 debuted to $154.2 million, while Deadpool & Wolverine scored a massive $211.4 million opening weekend earlier this year.

Industry experts predict Wicked could launch between $150-200 million domestically based on its pre-sales momentum. That range would safely secure it a top 3 debut weekend for 2024, besting even the $111 million start for Tim Burton’s Beetlejuice sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.

Can Wicked Find Overseas Success?

While a sky-high domestic debut seems assured, Wicked will need substantial international grosses to hit the coveted $1 billion mark. Both Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine relied heavily on overseas markets, aided by widespread brand recognition.

The original Inside Out grossed over $500 million internationally, priming audiences for the sequel. Meanwhile, Deadpool & Wolverine combined two proven global franchises in the X-Men series and the MCU.

It remains to be seen whether Wicked can engender the same fervor abroad. However, the musical has been globally embraced since opening on Broadway in 2003. It has had long-running productions in London, Germany, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Holland, and Australia, plus a two-year international tour from 2016-2018.

That worldwide exposure over the past 20 years may have fostered strong nostalgia and familiarity to mirror domestic audiences. The film will also benefit from its connection to The Wizard of Oz, a beloved property even in foreign markets.

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Star Power Adds to Wicked’s Appeal

Wicked boasts A-list talent that should further boost its international appeal. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande star as Elphaba and Galinda, alongside Michelle Yeoh, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, and Ethan Slater in key supporting roles.

Erivo is a Tony and Grammy winner familiar to Broadway fans. Grande is a global pop superstar with massive social media reach. Yeoh and Goldblum are Oscar-nominees with decades of international fame. And Slater is a Tony nominee for SpongeBob SquarePants who brings a musical theater fan base.

With rising and established stars from film, television, and theater, Wicked has the star power to entice audiences worldwide. Erivo and Grande in particular should fascinate foreign moviegoers and drive media buzz.

Part One Sets Up Billion-Dollar Two-Part Total

While Wicked will be split into two films, the first chapter is primed to ignite major box office numbers. Part One will likely end on a cliffhanger that leaves audiences eager for the conclusion.

This should guarantee Part Two an audience at least close to the size of Part One. And with the groundswell of anticipation for Wicked, Part One could conceivably break $500-600 million globally on its own.

That would put the two films combined easily above $1 billion. It took the final book in Harry Potter and Twilight 5 movies each to reach $1 billion. But Wicked may need only two films thanks to pent-up demand for a beloved property finally getting a big-screen adaptation.

Experts predict Wicked: Part One is headed for a $150-200 million domestic opening weekend. With international appeal added in, it seems on track to join 2024’s billion-dollar hits and set up Wicked’s two films combined to soar past $1 billion worldwide.