Can Conclave Hit Over $40.5 Million in Its US Opening Weekend Box Office?

The new drama Conclave is generating Oscar buzz ahead of its October 25 release in the US. With an acclaimed director in Edward Berger and a star-studded cast led by Ralph Fiennes, expectations are high for this Vatican-set film. But can it deliver at the box office, potentially topping $40.5 million in its opening weekend? Let’s take a look at what could propel Conclave to box office success.

What is the Buzz Around Conclave?

Conclave has garnered excellent reviews so far, holding a 91% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of October 10. Critics have praised the performances, particularly from leads Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci and John Lithgow. Berger’s direction has also won acclaim, with comparisons drawn to his 2022 Oscar winner All Quiet on the Western Front. Conclave premiering at fall festivals like Telluride and Toronto has further bolstered its awards profile. This critical buzz could certainly drive audiences to check out Conclave in theaters.

Will the much-anticipated movie hit over $40.5m in its opening weekend? Betting sites report a chance it might happen – at 1xbet, there are currently odds of 2.2/1 and a percentage chance of 45.5%.

Does Conclave Have Star Power to Draw Audiences?

Absolutely. Ralph Fiennes is a huge get for any prestige picture, bringing gravitas and talent to any role. Pairing him with two legendary actors in Tucci and Lithgow should have cinephiles running to theaters. Isabella Rossellini adds a legend in her own right. This cast has depth beyond just the leads, making Conclave a “who’s who” of character actors like Lucian Msamati and Carlos Diehz. For moviegoers who follow stars, Conclave has appeal.

Is There Audience Interest in This Type of Film?

Religious-themed movies have proven box office hits recently, with The Chosen now the #5 highest grossing US indie film ever. Conclave offers a unique look inside the secretive Vatican process for selecting a new Pope. This glimpse behind the curtains of one of the world’s most renowned faiths could entice moviegoers of all backgrounds. The film’s trailers also tease conspiracies and scandals, which could heighten interest.

Does Conclave Face Any Competition Opening Weekend?

The weekend of October 27-29 sees no new wide releases, leaving the frame open. However, Conclave still contends with holdovers like Halloween Ends and Black Adam in their third weekends. But as a more adult-skewing drama, Conclave should attract a different audience. Without direct competition, Conclave could leg out well through awards season.

What Kind of Opening Weekend is Realistic?

It’s unlikely Conclave reaches a blockbuster-level opening weekend north of $50 million. But specialty dramas from acclaimed directors like Edward Berger have often found success, i.e. All Quiet on the Western Front’s $15 million 5-day start. With its stars, reviews and palpable buzz, a $40.5 million opening seems within reach if Conclave breaks out.

Even a more conservative $25 million would be a win. But with the right audience turnout, Conclave could become an unexpected early box office hit this fall.