Will TikTok be Banned in the USA by the End of 2024?

In April, President Joe Biden signed a bill that could lead to TikTok being banned in the United States if the company does not satisfy national security concerns. The bill gives TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, 270 days to sell TikTok to a US company or face being banned from app stores and internet hosting services in the US. So, will TikTok actually be banned by the end of 2024?

What Exactly Does the New Law State?

The law Biden signed in April 2024 stems from longstanding concerns that TikTok poses national security risks due to its ties to China through its parent company ByteDance. Specifically, the law prohibits transactions with ByteDance and gives the company 270 days to divest TikTok to an entity that satisfies national security requirements. If ByteDance does not sell TikTok in that timeframe, the app would be banned from US app stores and internet hosting services, effectively blocking it in the country. The deadline for the sale is January 19, 2025, but Biden could extend it by 90 days.

According to 1xbet.com, there’s a 20% chance TikTok will be banned in the US by the end of the year, with odds of 5!

How is TikTok Responding to the Law?

TikTok has strongly condemned the law, calling it unconstitutional and saying it would devastate its community. CEO Shou Chew has told users that TikTok is not going anywhere and that they will keep fighting the law in court, as they believe the facts and constitution are on their side. Legal experts have suggested TikTok could have grounds to challenge the law as violating the First Amendment rights of its users. However, the legal battle could be lengthy even if courts temporarily block the law’s enforcement.

What are the Options for TikTok to Avoid a Ban?

The clearest way for TikTok to avoid a ban would be to finalize a sale to a US buyer that satisfies the national security requirements within the 270 timeframe. TikTok has been in talks for over two years to sell its US operations to an American company like Microsoft or Oracle, but nothing has been finalized yet. However, with the ticking clock now in place, TikTok will face immense pressure to seal a deal. The Biden administration could also grant an extension to provide more time.

What are the Obstacles to TikTok Selling Its US Business?

There are significant challenges to TikTok selling its US business that could prevent a deal, even with the deadline looming. Most notably, China has regulatory power over ByteDance and could block a sale of TikTok or refuse to include TikTok’s proprietary algorithm, which is core to its success. The Chinese government has previously opposed TikTok being sold. Without the algorithm, any sale would be meaningless. Navigating approval from both US and Chinese officials will be a tremendous challenge for TikTok.

The new law imposing a deadline for TikTok to sell itself or leave the US market elevates tensions substantially. But significant uncertainty remains on whether the threat to ban TikTok will ultimately be realized given the company’s legal options and challenges in finalizing a sale. The months ahead will be pivotal in determining if the rising US-China technology clash forces TikTok offline or a compromise is forged.